Events create political changes Friday, September 4, 2009

Unknown, innocuous events will often make significant changes to the political landscape of the country.
In 2004, the BJP decided to go in for snap polls because Vajpayee's team was convinced of victory. I read an interview by Late Pramod Mahajan in which he described the meeting - 'We explained that this was a favorable period becase we have just won the 2003 state elections. Atal ji listened to us, then simply said - Chalo. (Go ahead)'. My impresion is that Atalji was not convinced, yet he accepted the advice of his team. What if he had uttered another word - 'Ruko' (Wait). ?
In 2008, Vasundhara Raje did not accept the demands of Kirori lal Meena for a few seats. Consequently, he left the party, and his desertion cost Rajasthan. The setback to momentum may have cost the BJP, the Delhi throne in 2009. What if Raje had said "okay"?

I deeply regret the death of Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, Chief Minister of Andhra. He went on to a surprise visit in bad weather. His thoughts were for his people, not for himself. He was a true son of India.

Yet, this event may slowly trigger a series of activities which may affect the UPA govt in Delhi. Will this happen? Of course , no one can be a fortune teller. I just wish to point out that sometimes, small events trigger large actions.

Let us venture into the realms of the absurd.
Finding a weakened Congress, the BJP goes for sensible seat sharing in Haryana, making a rainbow coaltion between itself, Bhajan lal and Chauthala. This causes a surprise defeat for the Congress. In Maharshtra, bickerings between the NCP and Cong, as well as the realization that volting for the MNS helps no one, a surprise vote comes for the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance. Congress men get restless. Meanwhile, the Manmohan Singh govt continues its policies of promoting the super rich in India and accepting all American suggestions. Without strong Andhra support, the family goes along with this economics. Eventually, a major unrest takes place in the country against pro rich policies. The BJP establishment support the MMS govt on its pro rich bias. A part of the Congress breaks away. So does a major part of the BJP which does not approve of the capitalist slant of the leaders. A new govt is formed.

As I said, this is absurd but stranger things have happened.

I blog almost every day on the BJP, at : http://www.india15august.blogspot.com/